Who will win the Talladega Lottery? It’s anyone’s guess
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Every time a driver enters a Talladega race, it’s like entering the lottery. There’s a long-shot at winning, but drivers believe they can since it’s the lottery and anything could happen. When the drivers take to the track this weekend at Talladega, fans expect to see a wild and unpredictable event. Any driver could come out on top and in the past, drivers who weren’t expected to win, won the race. Talladega is a wide-open race where anything and everything will happen. What are the chances of anyone’s favorite driver scoring a victory this weekend? About as good as winning the lottery.
Credit goes to ESPN for this idea. A few years back on NASCAR Now, before a Talladega race, a driver number was randomly chosen from a lottery machine and that was their pick to win the race. For any restrictor-plate race, that’s the most accurate way of predicting the winner since anything could happen and every driver has a chance of winning.
My way of doing the exact same thing involved bingo. I found an old bingo-ball selector and filled the wheel, randomizing the bingo balls with drivers’ car numbers. Every driver taking the green-flag on Sunday has a number in the wheel, with an equal chance of being selected.
Picture a bingo ball wheel rolling around and spitting out a driver’s number ball, one at a time. Each driver having an equal chance of getting each position. The results below show the randomness of this draw method for the finishing order in Sunday’s race.
Jason’s Talladega Finishing Order Predictions
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Kurt Busch
- Casey Mears
- Trevor Bayne
- Clint Bowyer
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Aric Almirola
- Brian Vickers (#11, taking over for Denny Hamlin during the race)
- Jeff Burton
- Kevin Harvick
- Jimmie Johnson
- Carl Edwards
- David Stremme
- Scott Speed
- Michael Waltrip
- Tony Stewart
- Joe Nemechek
- Danica Patrick
- David Gilliland
- David Reutimann
- Jamie McMurray
- Ryan Newman
- Regan Smith
- Jeff Gordon
- Dale Earnhardt Jr.
- Greg Biffle
- Dave Blaney
- Brad Keselowski
- Paul Menard
- Terry Labonte
- Josh Wise
- Kyle Busch
- Kasey Kahne
- Marcos Ambrose
- David Ragan
- Bobby Labonte
- Matt Kenseth
- Landon Cassill
- J.J Yeley
- Travis Kvapil
- Juan Pablo Montoya
- Joey Logano
- Michael McDowell
This finishing order would have to follow a wild race and Talladega always has the option of producing that kind of race. Will Ricky Stenhouse Jr. win the race? This probability shows, he has the same shot at winning as everyone else, so it could definitely happen.
Sunday’s race promises to be as wild as any Talladega race. A few wrecks, lots of different leaders, and a wild finish are likely three factors determining the outcome of Sunday’s race. My random prediction could be totally wrong or somewhat right, but one thing to bet on is a crazy and unpredictable race on Sunday.
