This is your Fantasy Report for the NASCAR Cup Series at Watkins Glen International to help you with your picks this weekend. This week’s report is prepared as usual with the assistance of NASCAR and iFantasy.
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Watkins Glen International this weekend for a return to road-course racing. With the race falling earlier on the calendar than usual and a new, higher-horsepower package in play, teams and drivers should expect a steep learning curve.
Watkins Glen also has several updates aimed at safety and track limits. Last year, officials reduced the curbing in the bus stop to improve safety and driver comfort. They also added rumble strips in the first turn runoff to discourage off-track excursions and moved the restart zone to the straight before the seventh turn. This year, tire packs were added at the first turn and the Carousel to help enforce track limits.
Drivers will need to adjust to these changes this weekend, and the quickest to adapt will gain an edge.
Must Starts:
The field includes several road-course specialists on the entry list. But earlier this season at Circuit of the Americas, we saw that the most notable specialist – SVG – can still be beaten.
Shane Van Gisbergen: SVG said that following COTA, he felt Trackhouse Racing had given up some of its road-course edge, but don’t let that steer you away. The six-time road-course winner has led 303 laps over the last seven road-course races; everyone else has led 371 combined. In that span, he’s run in the top five for 84% of laps and in the top ten for 95%.
Christopher Bell: Bell didn’t look like his usual road-course self at COTA, but he still rallied to a third-place finish. His recent road-course numbers are excellent: seven top-five results in the last eight races, including four second-place finishes. While he’s had a few issues closing, he’s still too strong on road courses to overlook.
Chris Buescher: Buescher’s most recent win came at Watkins Glen two years ago, when he edged Shane Van Gisbergen at the line. Since the start of the Next Gen era in 2022, he’s been consistently competitive on road courses and is the only driver with top-ten finishes in all four Next Gen races at Watkins Glen.
Avoid These Drivers:
Two recent standouts are worth fading this week, for understandable reasons. If you can, it’s a good spot to save them for a different track.
Kyle Larson: A two-time winner at Watkins Glen, his most recent win here was in 2022. Since then, he’s finished outside the top-11 in three straight races, including two results of 26th or worse. Overall, his road-course form is mixed: he has back-to-back finishes of sixth or better, but that followed four finishes of 32nd or worse in five starts.
Denny Hamlin: For Hamlin, the goal this week may be damage control. He did finish second at Watkins Glen in 2023, but his road-course record in the Next Gen era is thin: just three top-ten finishes in 23 starts.
Sleepers:
Here are two sleepers to consider this week. One was the road-course benchmark before SVG arrived, and the other has numbers that are hard to ignore. Several Cup drivers have also improved on road courses in recent years by studying SVG’s approach.
AJ Allmendinger: Allmendinger has delivered big road-course results during his time with Kaulig Racing, but his road-course performance has been inconsistent. Watkins Glen is still his best track on the schedule: in the Next Gen era, he has five top-five finishes here and an average finish of 10.9.
Daniel Suarez: You might be tempted to pick his Spire teammate Michael McDowell here, but Watkins Glen sets up better for Suarez, and his results back it up. In the Next Gen era at WGI, Suarez has an 11.8 average finish (his best of any track), with three top-five finishes and four top-tens. Save McDowell for another week.
Other Considerations:
Tyler Reddick: Reddick is putting together an excellent season, and he’s been strong at Watkins Glen overall. He has three top-ten finishes here in the Next Gen era, though he also has a 27th-place result (2024). Although his average finish is 12.8, his current form makes him a high-upside option.
Connor Zilisch: Zilisch turned heads in the O’Reilly Series last year, and he has already won at Watkins Glen in that series. He is still adapting to the Next Gen car and Cup competition, but he is showing steady improvement, something few rookies do this early.
Carson Hocevar: His performance has trended up this season, and he brings momentum into the weekend. In two starts at Watkins Glen, Hocevar has a 10.5 average finish.
Zane Smith: In two starts at Watkins Glen, Smith has an average finish of 11.0, including a fifth-place result. He is a driver worth monitoring on Sunday.
Joey Logano: Logano’s Next Gen average finish at Watkins Glen (10.5) may look appealing, but the trend is negative. His last three results here are tenth or worse. His best Glen finish in the Next Gen era is third (2022), and his 2026 season hasn’t been his sharpest.
Picks this week: Shane Van Gisbergen, Christopher Bell, Chris Buescher, Tyler Reddick, and Connor Zilisch
In the Garage: Daniel Suarez
NOTE: The Fantasy Report returns to YouTube on Friday, May 15th, on Fan4Racing Radio.